Burnley 4-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Swansea meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Swansea have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Burnley register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Swansea in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 53% versus Swansea 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 33% | Swansea 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.33 xG and Swansea 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.008 / defence 1.140 | Swansea attack 1.219 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.055. Swansea have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Burnley games / 59 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 25% | Swansea 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Swansea 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Swansea 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 25% | Swansea 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Burnley 1.33 / Swansea 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.008 / def 1.140 | Swansea attack 1.219 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Swansea (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Swansea xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Swansea kick off?
Burnley vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Swansea?
Burnley 4 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Burnley vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Swansea part of?
Burnley vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 34% chance of winning, Swansea a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burnley and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Swansea in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Swansea (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burnley's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.22x) against Burnley's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 13/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
34%
2.91
25%
3.96
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.80
1.47
Swansea xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Burnley and 1.47 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 21D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.47 PPG from 51 outings (21W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Burnley against 1.47 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 7W 10D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Swansea in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 12W 21D 18L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Swansea have gone 21W 12D 18L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Swansea away?
Swansea's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.24 PPG; Swansea away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Burnley have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Burnley
0
Draws
0
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Swansea?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 4, Swansea have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Swansea 0-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Swansea?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 52%, Swansea 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Burnley) and 52% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 32% of games; Swansea in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burnley's recent matches and 48% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Burnley's recent games and 52% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Swansea tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Swansea in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Swansea 4-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.33 xG and Swansea 1.47 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Swansea attack 1.22 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 34% | Draw 25% | Swansea 40%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 33%, Swansea 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.12 PPG, Swansea 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.