Burnley 1-0 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face Oxford United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Oxford United meet at Turf Moor in Championship (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Burnley at home: 3W 7D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oxford United (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Oxford United have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Burnley, 1.90 for Oxford United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Burnley's last 10 home games and Oxford United's last 10 away games) — Burnley have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Oxford United in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Burnley 0–0 Oxford United — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Oxford United — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 46% versus Oxford United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 43% | Oxford United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.96 xG and Oxford United 0.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.626 / defence 0.613 | Oxford United attack 0.671 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.040. Burnley's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Oxford United's attack rating of 0.671 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.43. Burnley have a tight defence (rating 0.613), which is pulling Oxford United's projected output down. Data: built from Burnley's last 30 games and Oxford United's last 30.
Result probabilities: Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.12 | Draw 2.66 | Oxford United 6.52. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (38%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS Yes probability 22% | Total xG 1.39. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.39 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 78% — Oxford United's lower xG of 0.43 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 84% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Oxford United's last 10 away games) averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 20% (last 10 home games) | Oxford United 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Oxford United | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% (Under 84%) | BTTS Yes 22% (No 78%) | xG Burnley 0.96 / Oxford United 0.43 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.626 / def 0.613 | Oxford United attack 0.671 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Burnley (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.43
Oxford United xG
22%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Oxford United FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Oxford United kick off?
Burnley vs Oxford United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 4 February 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Oxford United?
Burnley 1 - 0 Oxford United.
Where is Burnley vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Oxford United part of?
Burnley vs Oxford United is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 47% chance of winning, Oxford United a 15% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 22% probability that both Burnley and Oxford United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (78%).
Will Burnley vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (84%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.63) and Oxford United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oxford United's attack (0.67x) against Burnley's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.43.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 30 games and Oxford United's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 26.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (22.6%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
47%
2.12
38%
2.66
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
24.0%
Home win
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.39
0.43
Oxford United xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
22%
BTTS Yes
4.51
78%
BTTS No
1.29
Clean Sheet
65%
1.53
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.9 | 10.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 24.0 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Oxford United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Burnley and 0.43 for Oxford United, a combined total of 1.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley's recent record stands at 20W 22D 26L from 68 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Oxford United, meanwhile, have gone 24W 22D 22L across 68 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Burnley against 1.38 for Oxford United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 8W 12D 13L from their last 33 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oxford United's away record stands at 9W 10D 14L across their last 33 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Oxford United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Oxford United Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 20W 22D 26L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 24W 22D 22L in their last 68 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Oxford United away?
Oxford United's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.09 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Burnley or Oxford United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Oxford United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 4 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Oxford United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Oxford United?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 1, Oxford United have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burnley and Oxford United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 February 2025: Burnley 1-0 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Oxford United?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Oxford United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Burnley) and 48% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 39% of games; Oxford United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Oxford United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Oxford United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burnley's recent matches and 54% of Oxford United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Oxford United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Burnley's recent games and 48% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Oxford United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Burnley's recent matches and 76% of Oxford United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Oxford United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Oxford United 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.96 xG and Oxford United 0.43 xG, a combined 1.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.63 / defence 0.61 against Oxford United attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 41% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 43%, Oxford United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oxford United's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.21 PPG, Oxford United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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