Bournemouth 3-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Cardiff meet at Vitality Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 30 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Cardiff have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.10 for Cardiff. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cardiff in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Cardiff and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Bournemouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cardiff — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 41% versus Cardiff 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 46% | Cardiff 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.97 xG and Cardiff 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.292 / defence 1.236 | Cardiff attack 1.066 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.095. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Bournemouth games / 22 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 50% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 28%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Cardiff 3.57. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 50% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Bournemouth 1.97 / Cardiff 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.292 / def 1.236 | Cardiff attack 1.066 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Cardiff xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Bournemouth vs Cardiff kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 30 December 2021 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Cardiff?
Bournemouth 3 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Bournemouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Cardiff part of?
Bournemouth vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 50% chance of winning, Cardiff a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bournemouth and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Cardiff in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Cardiff's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.07x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 24/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
50%
2.02
23%
4.43
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.42
1.44
Cardiff xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.44 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth come into this having played 22 games, going 12W 6D 4L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (6W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bournemouth's home form reads 6W 2D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.14 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 12W 6D 4L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Cardiff away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cardiff in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
0
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, Cardiff have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2021, when Bournemouth 3-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Cardiff?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Bournemouth, 70% for Cardiff — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Bournemouth and 80% for Cardiff. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bournemouth's games and 70% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Bournemouth's matches and 80% of Cardiff's.
Do Bournemouth and Cardiff tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Cardiff 3-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.97 xG and Cardiff 1.44 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.24 against Cardiff attack 1.07 / defence 1.51, drawn from 24/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 50% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 28%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 46%, Cardiff 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.