Blackburn 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Swansea travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn in Championship (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Blackburn stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Blackburn's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Swansea — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Blackburn carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Blackburn, 3 for Swansea and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Blackburn 1–2 Swansea — a Swansea win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Blackburn trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Swansea trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 58% versus Swansea 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 64% | Swansea 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.60 xG and Swansea 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 1.194 / defence 0.959 | Swansea attack 0.938 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.945. Data: built from Blackburn's last 55 games and Swansea's last 55.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 54% | Draw 27% | Swansea 19%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 1.84 | Draw 3.74 | Swansea 5.27. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Blackburn's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Blackburn 50% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 10 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 54% | Draw 27% | Swansea 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Blackburn 1.60 / Swansea 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 1.194 / def 0.959 | Swansea attack 0.938 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Swansea xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs Swansea kick off?
Blackburn vs Swansea kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Blackburn 1 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Blackburn vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Swansea part of?
Blackburn vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 54% chance of winning, Swansea a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Blackburn and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Blackburn vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 1.19x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 55 games and Swansea's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.74
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.45
0.85
Swansea xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
26.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Blackburn and 0.85 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn's recent record stands at 18W 14D 23L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 22L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.24 PPG, Swansea on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 10W 7D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.22 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Swansea
Blended
Blackburn (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and Swansea in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Swansea have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Swansea away?
Blackburn's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.37 PPG; Swansea away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2026, when Swansea won Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Blackburn's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Blackburn
0
Draws
7
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Swansea?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 3, Swansea have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 70%, Swansea 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Blackburn) and 56% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and Swansea matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Blackburn's games and 59% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Blackburn and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Blackburn's matches and 56% of Swansea's.
Do Blackburn and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Blackburn's recent matches and 85% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Swansea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Swansea 1-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.60 xG and Swansea 0.85 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 54% | Draw 27% | Swansea 19%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 64%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.24 PPG, Swansea 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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