Blackburn 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 1 as Blackburn welcome QPR to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Blackburn — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Blackburn haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. QPR haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
QPR away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Blackburn at 1.10 PPG versus QPR's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Blackburn have won 1, QPR 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Blackburn winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 44% versus QPR 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 44% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.26 xG and QPR 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.913 / defence 1.004 | QPR attack 0.978 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.096. Data: 46 Blackburn games / 46 QPR games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 40% | Draw 28% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 20% | QPR 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 40% | Draw 28% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Blackburn 1.26 / QPR 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.913 / def 1.004 | QPR attack 0.978 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.08
QPR xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs QPR kick off?
Blackburn vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Blackburn 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Blackburn vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs QPR part of?
Blackburn vs QPR is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 40% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Blackburn and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Blackburn 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are Blackburn and QPR in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.58
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.33
1.08
QPR xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Blackburn and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.08 for QPR, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 12D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. Blackburn haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (19W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. QPR haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.50 PPG, QPR on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Blackburn's home form reads 12W 5D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (9W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.30 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Pre-Season
QPR
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and QPR in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or QPR away?
Blackburn's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.78 PPG; QPR away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Blackburn or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, QPR in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Blackburn
0
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 6, QPR have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when QPR 1-3 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and QPR?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 39%, QPR 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Blackburn) and 65% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Blackburn have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Blackburn's recent matches and 65% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Blackburn's matches and 65% of QPR's.
Do Blackburn and QPR tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, QPR in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat QPR 1-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.26 xG and QPR 1.08 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against QPR attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 40% | Draw 28% | QPR 32%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 44%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.50 PPG, QPR 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.