Birmingham 2-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates QPR at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Birmingham and QPR meet at St Andrew's Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Birmingham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Birmingham have posted 2W 4D 4L at St Andrew's Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at St Andrew's Stadium this season.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
QPR arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Birmingham, 2 for QPR and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Birmingham — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
QPR — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 47% versus QPR 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 48% | QPR 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.10 xG and QPR 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.916 / defence 0.893 | QPR attack 1.102 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.134. Data: 62 Birmingham games / 62 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 35% | Draw 29% | QPR 36%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Birmingham 70% | QPR 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 35% | Draw 29% | QPR 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Birmingham 1.10 / QPR 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.916 / def 0.893 | QPR attack 1.102 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: QPR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.11
QPR xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs QPR kick off?
Birmingham vs QPR kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs QPR?
Birmingham 2 - 0 QPR.
Where is Birmingham vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs QPR part of?
Birmingham vs QPR is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 35% chance of winning, QPR a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Birmingham and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Birmingham 0W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Birmingham and QPR in?
Birmingham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. QPR (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Birmingham's attack rating (0.92) and QPR's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.10x) against Birmingham's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
35%
2.85
29%
3.45
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.21
1.11
QPR xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Birmingham and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.11 for QPR, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Birmingham's recent record stands at 16W 19D 27L from 62 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 22L across 62 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours QPR by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Birmingham heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 12W 4D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and QPR in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 16W 19D 27L in their last 62 games (1.08 PPG), while QPR have gone 28W 12D 22L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.20 PPG; QPR away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Birmingham or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Birmingham
1
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and QPR?
From 8 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 3, QPR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Birmingham 1-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 50%, QPR 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Birmingham) and 60% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Birmingham's games and 63% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Birmingham vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Birmingham's matches and 60% of QPR's.
Do Birmingham and QPR tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, QPR in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Birmingham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat QPR 2-0 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.10 xG and QPR 1.11 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against QPR attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 35% | Draw 29% | QPR 36%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Birmingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 48%, QPR 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Birmingham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.