Zlin 2-3 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 35%, yet in-form Zbrojovka Brno provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Zbrojovka Brno have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Zbrojovka Brno are 0.77 PPG clear of Zlin in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.67 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Zlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Zbrojovka Brno in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Zlin half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 67% and Zbrojovka Brno 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zlin 67% | Zbrojovka Brno 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.26 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.947 / defence 0.930 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.000 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.343. Data: 37 Zlin games / 6 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 35% | Draw 32% | Zbrojovka Brno 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Zbrojovka Brno 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zbrojovka Brno (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Zbrojovka Brno 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 35% | Draw 32% | Zbrojovka Brno 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Zlin 1.26 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.947 / def 0.930 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.000 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Zlin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Zbrojovka Brno xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Zlin 2 - 3 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 35% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.95x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zbrojovka Brno's attack (1.00x) against Zlin's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 37/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.17
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.51
1.25
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Zlin and 1.25 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zlin's recent record stands at 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 2L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zbrojovka Brno by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Zlin or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Zlin
2
Draws
1
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, Zlin have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Zlin, 67% for Zbrojovka Brno — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zlin and 83% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zlin have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 83% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Zlin and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zbrojovka Brno defy the odds to beat Zlin 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Zlin 2-3 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.26 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 35% | Draw 32% | Zbrojovka Brno 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Zbrojovka Brno win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 67%, Zbrojovka Brno 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Zlin scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zbrojovka Brno scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.