Zlin 3-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadion Letna, Zlin have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Teplice away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 0.80 PPG versus Teplice's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Zlin, 3 for Teplice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 3–1 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Teplice trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 50% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 54% | Teplice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.13 xG and Teplice 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.920 / defence 1.348 | Teplice attack 0.936 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.178. Data: 28 Zlin games / 58 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 30% | Teplice 43%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 50% | Teplice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 30% | Teplice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Zlin 1.13 / Teplice 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.920 / def 1.348 | Teplice attack 0.936 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Teplice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Teplice xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Zlin 3 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 27% chance of winning, Teplice a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): Zlin 4W | Draws 1 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.92x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.35
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.49
Teplice xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Zlin and 1.49 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 7D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (6W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.11 PPG, Teplice on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zlin's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (2W 8D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.96 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Teplice in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Teplice have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Teplice away?
Zlin's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.14 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zlin or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Teplice in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 57%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Zlin) and 43% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Zlin's games and 57% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Zlin's recent games and 43% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Teplice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Teplice in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Teplice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Teplice 3-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.13 xG and Teplice 1.49 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.92 / defence 1.35 against Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 27% | Draw 30% | Teplice 43%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 54%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.11 PPG, Teplice 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.