Zlin 4-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Pardubice at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Zlin) versus 0.90 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pardubice in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 52% versus Pardubice 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 56% | Pardubice 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 2.02 xG and Pardubice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.010 / defence 1.189 | Pardubice attack 0.899 / defence 1.745. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.126. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.745 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Zlin games / 25 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 56% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 22%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Pardubice 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Zlin (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Pardubice 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 56% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Zlin 2.02 / Pardubice 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.010 / def 1.189 | Pardubice attack 0.899 / def 1.745 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Zlin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pardubice xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Pardubice kick off?
Zlin vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Pardubice?
Zlin 4 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Zlin vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Pardubice part of?
Zlin vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 56% chance of winning, Pardubice a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zlin and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Pardubice in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.01) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.75), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.67
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.22
1.20
Pardubice xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
33.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Zlin and 1.20 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 7W 4D 14L from 25 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 13L across 25 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, Pardubice on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pardubice's away record stands at 3W 1D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.16 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 4W 8D 13L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Pardubice away?
Zlin's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.42 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Zlin
3
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 4, Pardubice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Pardubice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 58%, Pardubice at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zlin and 83% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zlin's games and 83% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 83% of Pardubice's.
Do Zlin and Pardubice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zlin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Pardubice 4-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 2.02 xG and Pardubice 1.20 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.75, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 56% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 22%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Pardubice 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.00 PPG, Pardubice 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.