Zlin 2-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Stadion Letná to face Zlin in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Zlin (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 1W 0D 4L at Stadion Letná — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hradec Králové have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 60% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 80% | Hradec Králové 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.49 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.860 / defence 1.612 | Hradec Králové attack 0.676 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.344. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Zlin games / 10 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 37%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Zlin 1.49 / Hradec Králové 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.860 / def 1.612 | Hradec Králové attack 0.676 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Zlin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Zlin vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Zlin 2 - 3 Hradec Králové.
Where is Zlin vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Hradec Králové part of?
Zlin vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Zlin and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Hradec Králové in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.68x) against Zlin's defence (1.61x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
38%
2.61
25%
4.08
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.96
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Zlin and 1.46 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zlin come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 0D 7L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Zlin's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 0.60 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Zlin or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zlin won 4-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Hradec Králové?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 60%, Hradec Králové 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Zlin and 40% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Zlin's recent matches and 40% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Zlin's matches and 40% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Zlin and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Zlin 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Zlin 2-3 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.49 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.86 / defence 1.61 against Hradec Králové attack 0.68 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 38% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 37%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 80%, Hradec Králové 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.