Zlin 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Stadion Letna to face Zlin in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Zlin (all games): 4W 2D 2L across 8 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 2W 2D 0L at Stadion Letna — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Zlin's 1.75 PPG return is 0.55 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zlin have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Hradec Králové in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Zlin, 3 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 4–0 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 62% and Hradec Králové 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 38% | Hradec Králové 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.908 / defence 1.014 | Hradec Králové attack 1.013 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.220. Data: 8 Zlin games / 38 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 33%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Hradec Králové 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Hradec Králové lead the H2H ledger, but Zlin carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 75% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Zlin 1.39 / Hradec Králové 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.908 / def 1.014 | Hradec Králové attack 1.013 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Zlin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Zlin vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Zlin 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Zlin vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Hradec Králové part of?
Zlin vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 40% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zlin and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Hradec Králové?
Record (6 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Zlin and Hradec Králové in?
Zlin (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.91x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (1.01x) against Zlin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.71
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.64
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Zlin and 1.25 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zlin come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 2D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Zlin's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hradec Králové in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Hradec Králové away?
Zlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 2.00 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zlin won 4-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Hradec Králové?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Zlin, 75% for Hradec Králové — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Zlin) and 50% (Hradec Králové).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Zlin's games and 75% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Zlin's recent games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Zlin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Zlin 1-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Hradec Králové attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 33%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 38%, Hradec Králové 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.