Zlin 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Letna, Zlin have gone 2W 4D 1L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bohemians 1905, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Zlin.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bohemians 1905 have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 64% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zlin 43% | Bohemians 1905 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.976 / defence 1.169 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.892 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.231. Data: 14 Zlin games / 44 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 1905 37%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Bohemians 1905 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 86% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 1905 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Zlin 1.08 / Bohemians 1905 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.976 / def 1.169 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.892 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 27% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Record (7 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
27%
3.64
35%
2.82
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.37
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.64
27%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.16
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Zlin and 1.28 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 5D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.86 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.50 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 83%, Bohemians 1905 at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zlin) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 33%; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Zlin's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zlin's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 27% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 1905 37%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 43%, Bohemians 1905 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.