Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Pardubice travel to ADAX INVEST Arena to take on Zbrojovka Brno. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zbrojovka Brno have posted 2W 2D 6L at ADAX INVEST Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pardubice are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zbrojovka Brno, 0 for Pardubice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Zbrojovka Brno winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Pardubice trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 73% and Pardubice 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 77% | Pardubice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.38 xG and Pardubice 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.844 / defence 1.304 | Pardubice attack 0.813 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.297. Data: 26 Zbrojovka Brno games / 56 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 37% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Pardubice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pardubice (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 80% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 37% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.38 / Pardubice 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.844 / def 1.304 | Pardubice attack 0.813 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Pardubice xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice?
Zbrojovka Brno 2 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 37% chance of winning, Pardubice a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zbrojovka Brno's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Pardubice's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.73
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
Pardubice xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.38 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Zbrojovka Brno have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 6D 13L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 6W 4D 16L from 26 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.04 PPG, Pardubice on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zbrojovka Brno have posted 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.88 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 6W 4D 16L in their last 26 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Pardubice away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 0.92 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zbrojovka Brno's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 2, Pardubice have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 77%, Pardubice at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Zbrojovka Brno and 62% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 54% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 62% of Pardubice's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Pardubice tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zbrojovka Brno edge out Pardubice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Pardubice 2-1 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.38 xG and Pardubice 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 37% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 77%, Pardubice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.04 PPG, Pardubice 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zbrojovka Brno win broke the near-deadlock. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.