Teplice 0-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Teplice have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season.

Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 0.50 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Teplice 0W, Sparta Praha 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–4 with Sparta Praha winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 44% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 52% | Sparta Praha 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.90 xG and Sparta Praha 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.759 / defence 1.138 | Sparta Praha attack 0.987 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.151. Teplice's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Teplice games / 27 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 26% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Praha 2.17. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Sparta Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.

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