Teplice 1-4 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 0D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.40 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 46% versus Sparta Praha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 40% | Sparta Praha 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.33 xG and Sparta Praha 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.980 / defence 0.957 | Sparta Praha attack 1.197 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.220. Data: 31 Teplice games / 31 Sparta Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Sparta Praha 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.33 / Sparta Praha 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.980 / def 0.957 | Sparta Praha attack 1.197 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sparta Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Teplice 1 - 4 Sparta Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 35% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 2 | Sparta Praha 4W.
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.20x) against Teplice's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.83
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.73
1.40
Sparta Praha xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Teplice and 1.40 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 11W 9D 15L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 27W 6D 2L from 35 games, 2.49 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 13W 2D 2L from 17 away games — 2.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.34 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 60%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 27W 6D 2L in their last 35 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.47 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Teplice
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 35%, Sparta Praha 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Teplice) and 65% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 35%; Teplice have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Teplice's recent matches and 59% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Teplice's recent games and 65% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 1-4 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.33 xG and Sparta Praha 1.40 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Sparta Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 35% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 38%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 40%, Sparta Praha 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.