Teplice 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Teplice, 1.20 for Slovan Liberec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Slovan Liberec — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Teplice and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Slovan Liberec 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Slovan Liberec 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.38 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.962 / defence 1.258 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.201 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.120. Slovan Liberec have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Teplice games / 33 Slovan Liberec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Slovan Liberec 2.22. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Teplice 1.38 / Slovan Liberec 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.962 / def 1.258 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.201 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Slovan Liberec xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Teplice 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 31% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Teplice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.20x) against Teplice's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.22
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.07
1.69
Slovan Liberec xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
6%
17.34
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Teplice and 1.69 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 9D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (11W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Teplice against 1.26 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Teplice's home form reads 5W 7D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.46 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Teplice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.29 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 5-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 41%, Slovan Liberec 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Teplice) and 47% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 35% of games; Slovan Liberec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Teplice's recent matches and 65% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Teplice's recent games and 47% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.38 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.69 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.20 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, Slovan Liberec 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.03 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.