Teplice 2-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 February 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Teplice, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 62% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.818 / defence 0.811 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.913 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.264. Data: 50 Teplice games / 50 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Sigma Olomouc 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Feb 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Teplice 1.19 / Sigma Olomouc 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.818 / def 0.811 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.913 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Teplice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sigma Olomouc xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 21 February 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 2 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 41% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.82) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.91x) against Teplice's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.12
0.94
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Teplice and 0.94 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 17W 15D 23L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 18L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.40 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 10W 11D 6L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 10W 9D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.47 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 17D 18L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Teplice's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.52 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 56%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Teplice) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Teplice's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.94 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.20 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.