Teplice 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Plzen travel to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Teplice have won 1, Plzen 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Plzen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 46% | Plzen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.99 xG and Plzen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.931 / defence 0.953 | Plzen attack 1.191 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.224. Data: 43 Teplice games / 43 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 23% | Draw 35% | Plzen 42%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Plzen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 23% | Draw 35% | Plzen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Teplice 0.99 / Plzen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.931 / def 0.953 | Plzen attack 1.191 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Plzen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Plzen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Plzen kick off?
Teplice vs Plzen kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Teplice 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Teplice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Plzen part of?
Teplice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 23% chance of winning, Plzen a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Teplice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
Record (7 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 3 | Plzen 3W.
What form are Teplice and Plzen in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.93x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
23%
4.36
35%
2.89
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.38
1.39
Plzen xG
4.36
23%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Teplice and 1.39 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 13D 21L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 29W 9D 10L from 48 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 13W 4D 6L from 23 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Plzen have gone 29W 9D 10L in their last 48 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.48 PPG; Plzen away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Teplice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
5
Draws
4
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Plzen have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Plzen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Teplice) and 56% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Plzen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Teplice's recent games and 56% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Plzen tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plzen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Teplice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.99 xG and Plzen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 23% | Draw 35% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 46%, Plzen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.