Teplice 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Teplice at 39%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Plzen travel to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to take on Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Teplice's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Plzen have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Plzen away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Teplice have won 1, Plzen 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2024, ended Teplice 1–1 Plzen — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Plzen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 47% | Plzen 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Teplice surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.42 xG and Plzen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.050 / defence 1.058 | Plzen attack 1.050 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.190. Data: built from Teplice's last 51 games and Plzen's last 51.

Result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.53 | Draw 3.91 | Plzen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 80% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 50% (last 10 away games).

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