Teplice 1-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Plzen travel to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Teplice have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Teplice have won 0, Plzen 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 69% and Plzen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 66% | Plzen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.43 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.899 / defence 1.067 | Plzen attack 0.981 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.254. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Plzen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 28% | Plzen 33%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Plzen lead the H2H ledger, but Teplice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 70% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 28% | Plzen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Teplice 1.43 / Plzen 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.899 / def 1.067 | Plzen attack 0.981 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Teplice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Plzen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Plzen kick off?
Teplice vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Teplice 1 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Teplice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Plzen part of?
Teplice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 39% chance of winning, Plzen a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Teplice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 2 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Teplice and Plzen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.90x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.55
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.75
1.31
Plzen xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Teplice and 1.31 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 11W 9D 15L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. Teplice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Plzen's form line: 18W 7D 10L from 35 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. Plzen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 8W 4D 5L from 17 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.71 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Plzen in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Pre-Season
Plzen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Plzen have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.59 PPG; Plzen away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Teplice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Plzen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
4
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Plzen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Plzen 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 65%, Plzen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Teplice) and 59% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Teplice's games and 59% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Teplice's recent games and 59% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Plzen tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plzen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Plzen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Plzen 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.43 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plzen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Plzen attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 39% | Draw 28% | Plzen 33%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 66%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.