Teplice 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
České Budějovice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, České Budějovice have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Teplice against 1.10 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Teplice 0W, České Budějovice 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 41% versus České Budějovice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 52% | České Budějovice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.13 xG and České Budějovice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.687 / defence 1.301 | České Budějovice attack 0.826 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. Teplice's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Teplice games / 29 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 37%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | České Budějovice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | České Budějovice 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Teplice 1.13 / České Budějovice 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.687 / def 1.301 | České Budějovice attack 0.826 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.20
České Budějovice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Teplice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Teplice 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Teplice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs České Budějovice part of?
Teplice vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 34% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Teplice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.69x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.83x) against Teplice's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.45
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
České Budějovice xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Teplice and 1.20 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 29 games, going 7W 3D 19L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
České Budějovice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 4W 1D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.43 points per game from 14 outings (0W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.34 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 7W 3D 19L in their last 29 games (0.83 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or České Budějovice away?
Teplice's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.93 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, České Budějovice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 43%, České Budějovice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 57% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 36% of games; České Budějovice in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Teplice's recent matches and 57% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 57% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat České Budějovice 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.13 xG and České Budějovice 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.69 / defence 1.30 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.45, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 34% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 37%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 52%, České Budějovice 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, České Budějovice arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.