Teplice 2-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Teplice have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
České Budějovice have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, České Budějovice have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Teplice against 1.20 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Teplice, 2 for České Budějovice and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Teplice 1–0 České Budějovice — a Teplice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 60% versus České Budějovice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 53% | České Budějovice 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.848 / defence 0.831 | České Budějovice attack 0.828 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.239. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.389 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 58 games and České Budějovice's last 58.
Result probabilities: Teplice 60% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 16%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.68 | Draw 4.15 | České Budějovice 6.15. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 60% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Teplice 1.83 / České Budějovice 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.848 / def 0.831 | České Budějovice attack 0.828 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Teplice (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
České Budějovice xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Teplice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Teplice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Teplice 2 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Teplice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs České Budějovice part of?
Teplice vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 60% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Teplice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.85x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.83x) against Teplice's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 58 games and České Budějovice's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.15
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.68
0.85
České Budějovice xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
38.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Teplice and 0.85 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 16D 24L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.00 PPG from 60 outings (17W 9D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Teplice against 1.00 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 12W 12D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.60 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 6D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.13 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
Teplice (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 17W 9D 34L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or České Budějovice away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Teplice and České Budějovice, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 5, České Budějovice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 53%, České Budějovice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 63% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; České Budějovice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and České Budějovice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Teplice's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Teplice and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 63% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Teplice's recent matches and 80% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 29, as Teplice and České Budějovice drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.85 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 60% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 16%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 53%, České Budějovice 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.27 PPG, České Budějovice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.