Teplice 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Teplice, 0 for Dukla Praha and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Dukla Praha 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.913 / defence 1.058 | Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Data: 54 Teplice games / 54 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Dukla Praha 5.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Teplice 1.44 / Dukla Praha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.913 / def 1.058 | Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Teplice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Teplice 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 52% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 3 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.91) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.57
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.22
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Teplice and 0.78 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 18W 16D 25L from 59 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 21D 29L across 59 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.19 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 13W 4D 13L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 3W 11D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.80 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 21D 29L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Teplice's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.43 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Teplice or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Teplice
4
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
From 6 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Dukla Praha 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 40% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 43% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Dukla Praha attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 52% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.19 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.