Sparta Praha 1-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Praha host Slovácko at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.90 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Praha register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 54% versus Slovácko 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Slovácko 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.83 xG and Slovácko 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.367 / defence 1.073 | Slovácko attack 0.912 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Sparta Praha games / 30 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 21%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Slovácko 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 90% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Sparta Praha 1.83 / Slovácko 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.367 / def 1.073 | Slovácko attack 0.912 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Slovácko xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Slovácko kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Slovácko?
Sparta Praha 1 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Slovácko part of?
Sparta Praha vs Slovácko is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 55% chance of winning, Slovácko a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sparta Praha and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Slovácko in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Slovácko (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.28
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.90
1.06
Slovácko xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.06 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 33 games, going 21W 7D 5L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.88 PPG from 33 outings (19W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Praha on 2.12 PPG, Slovácko on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 14W 3D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Sparta Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.64 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 21W 7D 5L in their last 33 games (2.12 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 19W 5D 9L in their last 33 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Slovácko away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.65 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Sparta Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Slovácko have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sparta Praha 5-2 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Slovácko?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 65%, Slovácko 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Sparta Praha and 71% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Praha's games and 65% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sparta Praha's matches and 71% of Slovácko's.
Do Sparta Praha and Slovácko tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Sparta Praha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Sparta Praha 1-2 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.83 xG and Slovácko 1.06 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Slovácko outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.37 / defence 1.07 against Slovácko attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 21%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Slovácko 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 2.12 PPG, Slovácko 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.