Sparta Praha 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec meet at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games (2.29 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.57 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Praha's home record at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena: 4W 0D 0L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.29 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 2D 3L across 7 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.14 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.15 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.29 vs 1.14) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, FK Jablonec in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 43% versus FK Jablonec 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 57% | FK Jablonec 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.39 xG and FK Jablonec 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.218 / defence 0.882 | FK Jablonec attack 0.512 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.203. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Sparta Praha games / 7 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 79% | Draw 15% | FK Jablonec 7%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | FK Jablonec 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 25% | FK Jablonec 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 79% | Draw 15% | FK Jablonec 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 38% | xG Sparta Praha 2.39 / FK Jablonec 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.218 / def 0.882 | FK Jablonec attack 0.512 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.54
FK Jablonec xG
38%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 79% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 2.57 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.51x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
79%
1.27
15%
6.74
7%
15.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.94
0.54
FK Jablonec xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.74
15%
Draw
15.06
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
9%
10.92
Win to Nil
46%
2.19
1%
164.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.54 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha's recent record stands at 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sparta Praha have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Sparta Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.71 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 29%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sparta Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sparta Praha) and 0% (FK Jablonec) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sparta Praha) and 67% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 0% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 67% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.39 xG and FK Jablonec 0.54 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.88 against FK Jablonec attack 0.51 / defence 1.44, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 79% | Draw 15% | FK Jablonec 7%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 57%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.