Slovan Liberec 1-3 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.10 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 47% versus Bohemians 1905 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 42% | Bohemians 1905 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.884 / defence 0.906 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.987 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.393. Data: 51 Slovan Liberec games / 51 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 37% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 1905 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 37% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.34 / Bohemians 1905 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.884 / def 0.906 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.987 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 3 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.99x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.24
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.58
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.25 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 17W 12D 24L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 18W 12D 23L from 53 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.25 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 5D 12L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.45 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.38 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 38%, Bohemians 1905 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Slovan Liberec) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 58% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovan Liberec 1-3 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 37% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Bohemians 1905 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.19 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.