Slovácko 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 7 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Slovácko's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Slovácko 1W, Hradec Králové 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 56% versus Hradec Králové 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 67% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.047 / defence 0.864 | Hradec Králové attack 0.907 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.316. Data: 31 Slovácko games / 31 Hradec Králové games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 28%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Hradec Králové 3.57. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Slovácko 1.39 / Hradec Králové 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.047 / def 0.864 | Hradec Králové attack 0.907 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Hradec Králové xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 45% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slovácko and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in?
Slovácko (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.05) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.91x) against Slovácko's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.70
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
Hradec Králové xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.03 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko's recent record stands at 21W 6D 9L from 36 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 11L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 14W 1D 2L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 21W 6D 9L in their last 36 games (1.92 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 11W 14D 11L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovácko's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.53 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 41%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Slovácko) and 47% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Slovácko's recent matches and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Slovácko's recent games and 47% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Hradec Králové attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 45% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 28%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 67%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.