Slovácko 1-5 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Wednesday 9 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slovácko have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Slovácko have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Slovácko are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hradec Králové's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Hradec Králové arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Slovácko edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Slovácko 0–3 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 45% versus Hradec Králové 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 45% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 0.95 xG and Hradec Králové 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.700 / defence 1.191 | Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.139. Slovácko's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Slovácko's last 57 games and Hradec Králové's last 57.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 26% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 44%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.88 | Draw 3.35 | Hradec Králové 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slovácko's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovácko 40% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 26% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Slovácko 0.95 / Hradec Králové 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.700 / def 1.191 | Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 9 April 2025 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Slovácko 1 - 5 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovácko vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 26% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slovácko and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Slovácko vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.70) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.98x) against Slovácko's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 57 games and Hradec Králové's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.35
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.27
1.33
Hradec Králové xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.33 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko's recent record stands at 19W 16D 27L from 62 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 22L across 62 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Slovácko against 1.39 for Hradec Králové. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 10W 10D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovácko (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 19W 16D 27L in their last 62 games (1.18 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 23W 17D 22L in their last 62 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovácko's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.33 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won Slovácko 1-5 Hradec Králové on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 47%, Hradec Králové 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Slovácko) and 43% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 33%; Slovácko have failed to score in 33% of games; Hradec Králové in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Slovácko's recent matches and 40% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Slovácko's recent games and 43% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Slovácko's recent matches and 57% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 1-5 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.95 xG and Hradec Králové 1.33 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.33 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.70 / defence 1.19 against Hradec Králové attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 26% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 44%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.18 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.