Slavia Praha 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc meet at Sinobo Stadium in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's home record at Sinobo Stadium: 4W 0D 0L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Slavia Praha's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 64% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 73% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.61 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.463 / defence 0.973 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.777 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.283. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Slavia Praha games / 11 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 72% | Draw 16% | Sigma Olomouc 12%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Sigma Olomouc 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 75% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 72% | Draw 16% | Sigma Olomouc 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 58% | xG Slavia Praha 2.61 / Sigma Olomouc 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.463 / def 0.973 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.777 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sigma Olomouc xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slavia Praha 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 72% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.61. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.78x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.34
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.58
0.97
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
7%
13.61
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
116.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.97 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 8W 2D 1L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.36 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sigma Olomouc's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 2.00 scored and 1.55 conceded. Sigma Olomouc's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 games (2.36 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slavia Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 75%, Sigma Olomouc 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Slavia Praha and 25% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 25% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Slavia Praha's matches and 25% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Slavia Praha and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.61 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.97 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.46 / defence 0.97 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.78 / defence 1.31, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 72% | Draw 16% | Sigma Olomouc 12%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 73%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.