Slavia Praha 5-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to Sinobo Stadium to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Sinobo Stadium this season: 6W 0D 0L from 6 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.30 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 50% versus FK Jablonec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 64% | FK Jablonec 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.345 / defence 0.817 | FK Jablonec attack 0.559 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.282. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Slavia Praha games / 14 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 80% | Draw 14% | FK Jablonec 6%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | FK Jablonec 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | FK Jablonec 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 80% | Draw 14% | FK Jablonec 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 41% | xG Slavia Praha 2.54 / FK Jablonec 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.345 / def 0.817 | FK Jablonec attack 0.559 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.58
FK Jablonec xG
41%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha 5 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 80% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.56x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
80%
1.25
14%
7.27
6%
15.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.13
0.58
FK Jablonec xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.27
14%
Draw
15.53
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
8%
12.73
Win to Nil
44%
2.25
1%
197.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.58 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 11W 2D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec's form line: 2W 7D 5L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.50 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.79 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 11W 2D 1L in their last 14 games (2.50 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slavia Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 29 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 50%, FK Jablonec 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Slavia Praha) and 50% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 33% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slavia Praha's matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 5-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 5-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.54 xG and FK Jablonec 0.58 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against FK Jablonec attack 0.56 / defence 1.42, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 80% | Draw 14% | FK Jablonec 6%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 64%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.