Sigma Olomouc 0-2 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Zbrojovka Brno to Andrův stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andrův stadion.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.48 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / defence 0.887 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.225. Data: 31 Sigma Olomouc games / 1 Zbrojovka Brno games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Zbrojovka Brno 24%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Zbrojovka Brno 4.17. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Zbrojovka Brno 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.48 / Zbrojovka Brno 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.982 / def 0.887 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Zbrojovka Brno xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 2 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 50% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.98x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.79
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.40
0.92
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.92 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zbrojovka Brno heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Zbrojovka Brno's attacking output running into Sigma Olomouc's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 100%.
Defensively: Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Sigma Olomouc or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
0
Draws
1
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Zbrojovka Brno 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Sigma Olomouc 0-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.48 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.92 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Zbrojovka Brno outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Zbrojovka Brno 24%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Zbrojovka Brno win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 100%, Zbrojovka Brno 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Zbrojovka Brno winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zbrojovka Brno conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.