Sigma Olomouc 0-5 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sigma Olomouc face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Slavia Praha have the stronger record — 5 wins to Sigma Olomouc's 1, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 66% versus Slavia Praha 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 64% | Slavia Praha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.121 / defence 1.072 | Slavia Praha attack 1.244 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.646, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sigma Olomouc's projected output down. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 60 games and Slavia Praha's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 23% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 52%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 4.35 | Draw 3.95 | Slavia Praha 1.93. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 23% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.98 / Slavia Praha 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.121 / def 1.072 | Slavia Praha attack 1.244 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Slavia Praha xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 5 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 23% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.24x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 60 games and Slavia Praha's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
23%
4.35
25%
3.95
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.59
1.60
Slavia Praha xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
5%
21.63
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.60 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 22W 14D 26L from 62 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 48W 10D 4L across 62 games — 2.48 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 13W 6D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 20W 8D 3L across their last 31 away games, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.10 scored and 0.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 14D 26L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 48W 10D 4L in their last 62 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.45 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Sigma Olomouc 0-5 Slavia Praha on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 1D 4L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Slavia Praha 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 68%, Slavia Praha 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Sigma Olomouc) and 42% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 52%; Slavia Praha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 39% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 42% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 61% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 0-5 at Andrův stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.60 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.65, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 23% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 52%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 64%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.