Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 41%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andruv stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Sigma Olomouc's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Plzen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 52% | Plzen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and Plzen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.846 / defence 0.618 | Plzen attack 1.179 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.217. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.618 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Sigma Olomouc games / 51 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Plzen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 10% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.16 / Plzen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.846 / def 0.618 | Plzen attack 1.179 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Plzen xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 6W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.85x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.09
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.05
0.89
Plzen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.89 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 15D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 34W 10D 12L from 56 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 5D 7L from 27 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.98 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Plzen have gone 34W 10D 12L in their last 56 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.63 PPG; Plzen away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plzen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Plzen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Sigma Olomouc and 59% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 52% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 59% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Plzen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and Plzen 0.89 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.62 against Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 52%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.