Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andrův stadion in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 4). Kick-off is Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Plzen have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 3 for Plzen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2025, ended Sigma Olomouc 2–1 Plzen — a Sigma Olomouc win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 63% versus Plzen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 65% | Plzen 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sigma Olomouc surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.25 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.116 / defence 1.065 | Plzen attack 1.248 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.248, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 60 games and Plzen's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 25% | Plzen 45%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.34 | Draw 4.03 | Plzen 2.21. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 25% | Plzen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.25 / Plzen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.116 / def 1.065 | Plzen attack 1.248 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Plzen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Plzen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 4) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 30% chance of winning, Plzen a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.12x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 60 games and Plzen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
30%
3.34
25%
4.03
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.85
1.60
Plzen xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.60 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 15D 28L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 41W 11D 13L from 65 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 6D 13L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 18W 7D 7L from their last 32 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.11 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 15D 28L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Plzen have gone 41W 11D 13L in their last 65 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.41 PPG; Plzen away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 66%, Plzen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Sigma Olomouc and 59% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 59% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 59% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 78% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.25 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 25% | Plzen 45%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 65%, Plzen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.