Sigma Olomouc 3-3 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Sigma Olomouc's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG and České Budějovice 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.164 / defence 1.230 | České Budějovice attack 0.689 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.344. Data: 2 Sigma Olomouc games / 3 České Budějovice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 48% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 27%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | České Budějovice 3.70. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 48% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.58 / České Budějovice 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.164 / def 1.230 | České Budějovice attack 0.689 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.14
České Budějovice xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 3 České Budějovice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 48% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.69x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (2/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.00
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.72
1.14
České Budějovice xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.14 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, České Budějovice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 50% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 50% of České Budějovice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Sigma Olomouc and České Budějovice drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG and České Budějovice 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.16 / defence 1.23 against České Budějovice attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 48% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 27%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 100%, České Budějovice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.