Sigma Olomouc 1-4 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 3–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 49% versus Baník Ostrava 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 49% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.010 / defence 1.028 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.985 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.222. Data: 59 Sigma Olomouc games / 59 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 39% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 33%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Baník Ostrava 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 39% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.37 / Baník Ostrava 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.010 / def 1.028 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.985 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 4 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 39% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.01x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.57
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.61
1.24
Baník Ostrava xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.24 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 22D 20L from 63 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 22L across 63 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.35 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 12W 12D 7L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 9W 11D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.57 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 67%.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 18D 22L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 55%, Baník Ostrava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sigma Olomouc) and 55% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 64% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 55% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 1-4 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 39% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 33%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 49%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.