Plzen 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Plzen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Mlada Boleslav, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Plzen 3–0 Mlada Boleslav — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data gives Plzen an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 63% | Mlada Boleslav 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.07 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.326 / defence 0.786 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.033 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.141. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.326 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Mlada Boleslav's projected output down. Data: built from Plzen's last 38 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 38.
Result probabilities: Plzen 64% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 16%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.57 | Draw 4.94 | Mlada Boleslav 6.28. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plzen 40% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 64% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Plzen 2.07 / Mlada Boleslav 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.326 / def 0.786 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.033 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Plzen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mlada Boleslav xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 64% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 38 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.94
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.00
0.93
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
2%
49.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Plzen and 0.93 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 43 games, going 26W 9D 8L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.33 PPG from 43 outings (16W 9D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 15W 3D 3L across their last 21 home games, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 21 away games (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.51 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 26W 9D 8L in their last 43 games (2.02 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Plzen's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.29 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plzen or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Plzen.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 52%, Mlada Boleslav 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Plzen) and 52% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Plzen's recent matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Plzen and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Plzen's recent matches and 71% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.07 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.33 / defence 0.79 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 64% | Draw 20% | Mlada Boleslav 16%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 63%, Mlada Boleslav 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.