Plzen 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Doosan Aréna — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Mlada Boleslav, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Plzen winning.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 63% versus Mlada Boleslav 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 67% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.46 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.301 / defence 1.122 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.140 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.193. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Plzen games / 49 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 19% | Mlada Boleslav 23%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | Mlada Boleslav 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 60% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 19% | Mlada Boleslav 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG Plzen 2.46 / Mlada Boleslav 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.301 / def 1.122 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.140 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Plzen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Mlada Boleslav xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 58% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (4 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
58%
1.72
19%
5.31
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.98
1.52
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.72
58%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
9%
11.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
2%
50.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Plzen and 1.52 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 8D 15L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (17W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 14W 4D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.45 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 28W 8D 15L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Plzen's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.84 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 64%, Mlada Boleslav 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Plzen and 60% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Plzen's games and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Plzen's matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Plzen and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.46 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.52 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.30 / defence 1.12 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.14 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 58% | Draw 19% | Mlada Boleslav 23%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 67%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.