Plzen 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Plzen welcome České Budějovice to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 8W 0D 2L at Doosan Aréna — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for České Budějovice, with 0 draws in between.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 42% versus České Budějovice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 50% | České Budějovice 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.73 xG and České Budějovice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.170 / defence 0.834 | České Budějovice attack 0.825 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.374. Data: 48 Plzen games / 48 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 53% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 18%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | České Budějovice 5.56. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Plzen 30% | České Budějovice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 53% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Plzen 1.73 / České Budějovice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.170 / def 0.834 | České Budějovice attack 0.825 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Plzen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.94
České Budějovice xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs České Budějovice kick off?
Plzen vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Plzen 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Plzen vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs České Budějovice part of?
Plzen vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 53% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.17x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.44
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.68
0.94
České Budějovice xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
31.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Plzen and 0.94 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 50 games, going 36W 10D 4L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.08 PPG from 50 outings (14W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 20W 2D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.58 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.79 points per game from 24 outings (4W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.18 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 36W 10D 4L in their last 50 games (2.36 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or České Budějovice away?
Plzen's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.58 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Plzen or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and České Budějovice runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Plzen
0
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 8, České Budějovice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 38%, České Budějovice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plzen) and 54% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; České Budějovice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Plzen's recent matches and 54% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plzen's matches and 54% of České Budějovice's.
Do Plzen and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.73 xG and České Budějovice 0.94 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 53% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 18%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, České Budějovice 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
České Budějovice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.