Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Bohemians 1905 have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Bohemians 1905 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.155 / defence 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.980 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.103. Data: 55 Plzen games / 55 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 4.00. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Plzen 1.48 / Bohemians 1905 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.155 / def 0.948 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.980 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Plzen 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.16) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Plzen and 1.02 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 59 games, going 35W 11D 13L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.14 PPG from 59 outings (17W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 18W 6D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.97 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 11D 13L in their last 59 games (1.97 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 16D 26L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Plzen's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.07 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Plzen or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 59%, Bohemians 1905 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 41% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Plzen's recent matches and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 46% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 25%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.