Plzen 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Plzen (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plzen lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 59% versus Baník Ostrava 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 66% | Baník Ostrava 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.07 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.267 / defence 0.796 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.241 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Plzen's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Baník Ostrava 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 40% | Baník Ostrava 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Plzen 2.07 / Baník Ostrava 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.267 / def 0.796 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.241 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Plzen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Baník Ostrava xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 55% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Record (4 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.24x) against Plzen's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.35
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.34
1.27
Baník Ostrava xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
3%
35.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Plzen and 1.27 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 39W 12D 17L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 24W 15D 29L from 68 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.00 PPG from 34 outings (21W 5D 8L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 9D 14L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.50 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 39W 12D 17L in their last 68 games (1.90 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 15D 29L in their last 68 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.00 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 56%, Baník Ostrava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Plzen and 56% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Plzen's games and 62% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Plzen's matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 4, as Plzen and Baník Ostrava drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.07 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.27 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.24 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 55% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 66%, Baník Ostrava 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.