Pardubice 3-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Slovácko travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 April 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Slovácko's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pardubice) versus 1.70 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pardubice, 1 for Slovácko and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 54% versus Slovácko 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Slovácko 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.08 xG and Slovácko 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.791 / defence 0.943 | Slovácko attack 0.966 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.215. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Pardubice games / 58 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 36%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Slovácko 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 50% | Slovácko 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Pardubice 1.08 / Slovácko 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.791 / def 0.943 | Slovácko attack 0.966 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Slovácko xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Pardubice 3 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 34% chance of winning, Slovácko a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Record (2 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.33
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Slovácko xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.11 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 16W 14D 33L from 63 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 18L across 63 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 8W 11D 12L from 31 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 16W 14D 33L in their last 63 games (0.98 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 33W 12D 18L in their last 63 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.13 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Slovácko in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 45%, Slovácko 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pardubice) and 68% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pardubice's recent matches and 64% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pardubice's recent games and 68% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Slovácko 3-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.08 xG and Slovácko 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Slovácko attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 34% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 36%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 56%, Slovácko 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.