Pardubice 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pardubice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pardubice have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Pardubice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Pardubice.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Pardubice 0–2 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 42% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Plzen 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pardubice surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.75 xG and Plzen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.726 / defence 1.177 | Plzen attack 1.178 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.168. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Plzen bring a tight defence (rating 0.709, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Pardubice's last 54 games and Plzen's last 54.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 16% | Draw 27% | Plzen 57%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 6.28 | Draw 3.67 | Plzen 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 16% | Draw 27% | Plzen 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Pardubice 0.75 / Plzen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.726 / def 1.177 | Plzen attack 1.178 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Plzen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Plzen xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Pardubice 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 16% chance of winning, Plzen a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.73) and Plzen's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 54 games and Plzen's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
16%
6.28
27%
3.67
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.37
1.62
Plzen xG
6.28
16%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
3%
31.72
27%
3.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.62 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 14W 13D 32L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 37W 11D 11L from 59 games, 2.07 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 8D 14L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 16W 6D 7L from their last 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.08 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 13D 32L in their last 59 games (0.93 PPG), while Plzen have gone 37W 11D 11L in their last 59 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Plzen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won Plzen 4-0 Pardubice.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 2, Plzen have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Plzen 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 45%, Plzen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Pardubice) and 55% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pardubice's recent matches and 55% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Pardubice's recent games and 55% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Pardubice's recent matches and 79% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.75 xG and Plzen 1.62 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plzen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 16% | Draw 27% | Plzen 57%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Plzen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.