Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bohemians 1905 are 0.80 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Pardubice, 4 for Bohemians 1905 and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 10 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 70% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 54% | Bohemians 1905 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.15 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.820 / defence 1.102 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.040 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 36 Pardubice games / 35 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 47%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 2.13. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Pardubice 1.15 / Bohemians 1905 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.820 / def 1.102 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.040 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 4W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.82x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.04x) against Pardubice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
28%
3.56
25%
3.98
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.71
1.56
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.93
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.56 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 16L across 37 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Pardubice against 1.22 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 7W 4D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.17 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
2
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 72%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pardubice) and 44% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Pardubice's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pardubice's recent games and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.