Pardubice 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pardubice face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Pardubice have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians 1905 away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bohemians 1905 are 1.00 PPG clear of Pardubice over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have the stronger record — 4 wins to Pardubice's 1, with 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Pardubice 0–0 Bohemians 1905 — a draw.
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 42% versus Bohemians 1905 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Bohemians 1905 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pardubice surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Bohemians 1905 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 45% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.635 / defence 1.053 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.046 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.167. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Pardubice's last 57 games and Bohemians 1905's last 57.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.58 | Draw 3.14 | Bohemians 1905 2.16. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 30% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Pardubice 0.80 / Bohemians 1905 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.635 / def 1.053 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.046 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Pardubice 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 22% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.64x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.05x) against Pardubice's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 57 games and Bohemians 1905's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
22%
4.58
32%
3.14
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.09
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.28 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 14D 34L from 62 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 23L across 62 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Pardubice against 1.18 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 9D 14L from their last 30 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 14D 34L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 22D 23L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Pardubice have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
2
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Pardubice 2-1 Bohemians 1905.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 43%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 43% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pardubice's recent matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Pardubice's recent matches and 67% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.64 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.