Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mlada Boleslav's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Teplice have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 2 for Teplice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Mlada Boleslav 2–1 Teplice — a Mlada Boleslav win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 56% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 59% | Teplice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.48 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.039 / defence 0.970 | Teplice attack 0.884 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.173. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 50 games and Teplice's last 50.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 27% | Teplice 25%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.08 | Draw 3.77 | Teplice 3.93. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 27% | Teplice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.48 / Teplice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.039 / def 0.970 | Teplice attack 0.884 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Teplice xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 48% chance of winning, Teplice a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.04) and Teplice's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.88x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 50 games and Teplice's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.77
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.49
1.00
Teplice xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.00 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 14D 20L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (17W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.19 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 12W 5D 9L across their last 26 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.09 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 14D 20L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.58 PPG; Teplice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 58%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Mlada Boleslav and 54% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 54% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 54% of Teplice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.48 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 27% | Teplice 25%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 59%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.37 PPG, Teplice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.