Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slavia Praha make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.67 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.36 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.155 / defence 0.984 | Slavia Praha attack 0.987 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.420. Data: 3 Mlada Boleslav games / 2 Slavia Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 38%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Slavia Praha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.36 / Slavia Praha 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.155 / def 0.984 | Slavia Praha attack 0.987 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.16x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (0.99x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (3/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.91
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.74
1.38
Slavia Praha xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.38 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Mlada Boleslav's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Slavia Praha in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Mlada Boleslav or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 4-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.36 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Slavia Praha attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 3/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 38%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 50%, Slavia Praha 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form held, and they took the win. Mlada Boleslav managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.