Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.70 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Sigma Olomouc 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 61% | Sigma Olomouc 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.40 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.992 / defence 1.478 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.701 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Mlada Boleslav games / 30 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 43% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 30%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Sigma Olomouc 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 43% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.40 / Sigma Olomouc 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.992 / def 1.478 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.701 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sigma Olomouc xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Middle Play-offs - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 43% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.70x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.67
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.52
1.12
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.12 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 14W 5D 14L from 33 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 12L across 33 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 8W 2D 6L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 5D 14L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 11W 10D 12L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.62 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 50%, Sigma Olomouc 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mlada Boleslav) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 38% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Final, as Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.40 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.12 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 1.48 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.70 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 43% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 30%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Sigma Olomouc 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.42 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.