Mlada Boleslav 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Sigma Olomouc's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Mlada Boleslav's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Mlada Boleslav 2–3 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 56% and Sigma Olomouc 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Sigma Olomouc 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.70 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.089 / defence 0.802 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.012 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.199. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 48 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 48.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 20%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.89 | Draw 3.69 | Sigma Olomouc 5.00. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.70 / Sigma Olomouc 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.089 / def 0.802 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.012 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sigma Olomouc xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 53% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.01x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 48 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.69
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.67
0.97
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
27.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.97 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 19W 14D 17L from 50 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 22L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.20 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 12W 5D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 6D 12L across their last 24 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.34 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 68%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.71 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Mlada Boleslav on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 58%, Sigma Olomouc 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Mlada Boleslav and 54% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 71% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 54% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 79% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 1-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.70 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 53% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 20%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Sigma Olomouc 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.42 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.