Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Mlada Boleslav face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mlada Boleslav stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mlada Boleslav at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Mlada Boleslav.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Plzen — a draw.
Plzen have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Plzen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Plzen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.052 / defence 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.103 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.223. Plzen bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Mlada Boleslav's projected output down. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 53 games and Plzen's last 53.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.91 | Draw 3.58 | Plzen 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.24 / Plzen 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.052 / def 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.103 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Plzen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Plzen xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 34% chance of winning, Plzen a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.05) and Plzen's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 53 games and Plzen's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.58
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.55
1.31
Plzen xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.31 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 15D 21L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 36W 11D 11L from 58 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 6D 7L from their last 28 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.09 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Plzen have gone 36W 11D 11L in their last 58 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.61 PPG; Plzen away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Plzen have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Plzen.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Plzen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Mlada Boleslav and 57% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 57% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 57% of Plzen's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 79% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Plzen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.